Macro dashboard

Rates & curves

Policy rates, government yield curves, 10-year yields, the slope of the curve, inflation and real rates across economies.

Updated 21 Oct 2026, 01:48 UTC

Key numbers

Latest value and its change over the last week (1W), month (1M), year to date (YTD, where shown) and year (1Y). Changes in rates are in basis points (bp = 0.01%), changes in inflation in percentage points (pp), changes in prices and indices in %.

Fed funds effective

3.88%

as of 19 Oct 2026

1W
0 bp
1M
0 bp
1Y
−23 bp

ECB deposit facility rate (DFR)

2.50%

as of 21 Oct 2026

1W
0 bp
1M
0 bp
1Y
+50 bp

Treasury 10Y

5.15%

as of 19 Oct 2026

1W
−9 bp
1M
+14 bp
1Y
+113 bp

AAA 10Y

3.47%

as of 19 Oct 2026

1W
−3 bp
1M
−6 bp
1Y
+81 bp

JGB 10Y

2.927%

as of 20 Oct 2026

1W
−9 bp
1M
−5 bp
1Y
+125 bp

10Y-2Y spread

0.33%

as of 20 Oct 2026

1W
−9 bp
1M
+8 bp
1Y
−21 bp

US CPI headline

3.72%

as of Sep 2026

1W
—
1M
+0.4 pp
1Y
+0.7 pp

Euro-area HICP headline

3.80%

as of Sep 2026

1W
—
1M
+0.6 pp
1Y
+1.6 pp

Policy rates

The interest rates central banks set to steer the cost of money, compared across five economies and, for the Fed and the ECB, from the primary sources.

Policy rates compared

How to read it: A policy rate is the interest rate a central bank sets to steer borrowing costs: raising it is meant to cool the economy and cutting it to support it. China's line is a bank lending rate (the LPR), not an overnight rate like the others, so it is not directly comparable.

Source: BIS ↗ (5 series) · Notes: Policy rates compared, China Loan Prime Rate, Korea policy rate delay

Latest data: Fed policy rate 13 Oct 2026 · ECB policy rate (deposit) 13 Oct 2026 · BoJ policy rate 13 Oct 2026 · PBoC 1-year LPR 13 Oct 2026 · BoK base rate 8 Oct 2026

Fed funds effective rate and ECB deposit rate

How to read it: Each line is the rate that guides short-term borrowing costs in its area: the effective Fed funds rate in the US and the deposit facility rate in the euro area. They change in steps after central-bank meetings.

Source: FRED ↗, ECB ↗ · Notes: Fed and ECB rates

Latest data: Fed funds effective 19 Oct 2026 · ECB deposit facility rate (DFR) 21 Oct 2026

Government yield curves

The interest rate each government pays to borrow for different lengths of time, today compared with one month and one year ago.

Treasury curve: today, 1 month ago, 1 year ago

How to read it: A yield curve shows the interest rate a government pays to borrow for different lengths of time. It usually slopes upwards, because longer loans pay more; the dashed and dotted lines show how the curve has shifted over the past month and year.

Source: FRED ↗ (5 series) · Notes: How the curve snapshot is dated

Latest data: Treasury 3M 19 Oct 2026 · Treasury 2Y 19 Oct 2026 · Treasury 5Y 19 Oct 2026 · Treasury 10Y 19 Oct 2026 · Treasury 30Y 19 Oct 2026

Euro-area AAA curve (Bund proxy): today, 1 month ago, 1 year ago

How to read it: The same picture for the euro area, using yields on AAA-rated government bonds (mainly Germany) as a stand-in for German Bunds. Comparing the three lines shows how much borrowing costs have moved at each maturity over the past month and year.

Source: ECB ↗ (6 series) · Notes: AAA curve as a Bund proxy, How the curve snapshot is dated

Latest data: AAA 3M 19 Oct 2026 · AAA 1Y 19 Oct 2026 · AAA 2Y 19 Oct 2026 · AAA 5Y 19 Oct 2026 · AAA 10Y 19 Oct 2026 · AAA 30Y 19 Oct 2026

10-year yields compared

The cost at which governments borrow for ten years, a common benchmark for long-term interest rates.

10-year government bond yields

Curve slope and inversions

The slope of the curve is the long-term yield minus the short-term yield. When it turns negative the curve is inverted.

Curve slope 10Y-2Y: US vs euro area

How to read it: The slope is the 10-year yield minus the 2-year yield. When it falls below zero (red area) the curve is inverted: short-term rates are higher than long-term ones, which in the US has often come before recessions, though with long and variable delays. The long inversion of 2022-2024 has not been followed by a recession so far, a reminder that the signal can fail.

Source: FRED ↗, ECB ↗ (2 series) · Notes: Curve inversion (red area), AAA curve as a Bund proxy

Latest data: 10Y-2Y spread 20 Oct 2026 · AAA slope 10Y-2Y 19 Oct 2026

10Y-2Y and 10Y-3M spreads

How to read it: Two versions of the US slope: 10-year minus 2-year, and 10-year minus 3-month. Both have historically turned negative before many US recessions (grey bands), but the delay has varied and the signal is not a forecast. The long inversions that began in 2022 (10Y-2Y until 2024, 10Y-3M until 2025) have not been followed by a recession so far, a reminder that the signal can fail.

Source: FRED ↗ (2 series) · Notes: Curve inversion (red area), US recession bands (NBER)

Latest data: 10Y-2Y spread 20 Oct 2026 · 10Y-3M spread 20 Oct 2026

Inflation and real rates

Interest rates only mean something against inflation: how fast consumer prices are rising in five economies, and what US bonds pay above inflation.

CPI inflation compared (% y/y)

How to read it: Inflation is the yearly change in consumer prices; many central banks aim for about 2%. Central banks have historically tended to raise interest rates when inflation runs well above their target and to cut them when it stays too low.

Source: BIS ↗ (5 series) · Notes: 2% reference line

Latest data: US CPI inflation 1 Aug 2026 · Euro area CPI inflation 1 Aug 2026 · Japan CPI inflation 1 Jul 2026 · China CPI inflation 1 Aug 2026 · Korea CPI inflation 1 Jul 2026

10Y real yield and 10Y breakeven (US)

How to read it: A real yield is what an inflation-protected Treasury (TIPS) pays above inflation. Breakeven inflation is the ordinary yield minus the real yield, and shows the inflation rate the bond market is pricing in; both come from market prices, so they move every day and are not forecasts.

Source: FRED ↗ (2 series) · Notes: TIPS and breakeven history, US recession bands (NBER)

Latest data: Real yield 10Y (TIPS) 19 Oct 2026 · Breakeven inflation 10Y 20 Oct 2026

Yields by country

A closer look at the yields of the US, the euro area and Japan, by maturity.

US yields by maturity over time

How to read it: US yields from 3 months to 30 years. Short maturities have historically followed the Fed's policy rate closely, while long ones also reflect expectations about growth and inflation.

Source: FRED ↗ (5 series) · Notes: US recession bands (NBER)

Latest data: Treasury 3M 19 Oct 2026 · Treasury 2Y 19 Oct 2026 · Treasury 5Y 19 Oct 2026 · Treasury 10Y 19 Oct 2026 · Treasury 30Y 19 Oct 2026

Euro-area AAA curve (Bund proxy): 2 and 10 years

How to read it: Euro-area AAA yields at 2 and 10 years. The 2-year follows expected ECB rates more closely than the 10-year, so the gap between them changes as those expectations change.

Source: ECB ↗ (2 series) · Notes: AAA curve as a Bund proxy, Euro-area recession bands (CEPR)

Latest data: AAA 2Y 19 Oct 2026 · AAA 10Y 19 Oct 2026

JGB yields at 2, 10 and 30 years

How to read it: Japanese government bond yields at 2, 10 and 30 years. They stayed unusually low for decades while the Bank of Japan held its policy rate near zero or below and, from 2016 to 2024, capped the 10-year yield.

Source: Japan Ministry of Finance ↗ (3 series) · Notes: JGB history and fallback

Latest data: JGB 2Y 20 Oct 2026 · JGB 10Y 20 Oct 2026 · JGB 30Y 20 Oct 2026

Inflation by country

The official inflation measures of the US, the euro area and Japan, with their "core" versions that leave out the most volatile prices.

Headline CPI, core CPI and core PCE (% y/y)

How to read it: Headline CPI covers every item in the basket; core CPI and core PCE leave out food and energy, which swing a lot, to show the underlying trend. The Fed's 2% target is defined on the PCE index, and it watches core PCE closely.

Source: FRED ↗ (3 series) · Notes: Fed 2% target, US recession bands (NBER)

Latest data: US CPI headline 1 Sep 2026 · US CPI core 1 Sep 2026 · US PCE core 1 Aug 2026

HICP headline and core (% y/y)

How to read it: HICP is the euro area's official measure of consumer-price inflation; "core" leaves out energy, food, alcohol and tobacco to show the underlying trend. The ECB aims for 2% over the medium term.

Source: ECB ↗ (2 series) · Notes: HICP core definition, ECB 2% target, Euro-area recession bands (CEPR)

Latest data: Euro-area HICP headline 1 Sep 2026 · Euro-area HICP core 1 Sep 2026

Headline, core and core-core CPI (% y/y)

How to read it: Japan's CPI in three versions: total, "core" (without fresh food) and "core-core" (also without energy). Japanese inflation stayed close to zero or negative for many years, which is why the BoJ's 2% target was a long-running aim. Headline inflation then stayed above 2% from April 2022 to the end of 2025, and in 2024 the BoJ ended negative interest rates and began raising its policy rate; in 2026 inflation has mostly been below 2% again.

Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan (via DBnomics) ↗ (3 series) · Notes: Japan CPI sources, BoJ 2% target

Latest data: Japan CPI headline 1 Aug 2026 · Japan CPI core (ex fresh food) 1 Aug 2026 · Japan CPI core-core (ex fresh food and energy) 1 Aug 2026

Every series on this site, with its source and status: Series status. Sources, rules and known limits: Sources & method.